AH-dixoncoles-v1.0.0

Dixon-Coles bivariate goal matrix, time-weighted decay, rho per fold

Scientific Hypothesis

Baseline champion from EPIC 56 calibration tournament

RESEARCH STATUS:Model AH-dixoncoles-v1.0.0 is NOT VALIDATED. Historical backtest ROI: -2.30%. CLV not statistically significant (p=0.555). All outputs are published strictly for quantitative research transparency, not as betting recommendations.

Historical Calibration Tournament Results (EPIC 56)

REALIZED ROI-2.30%

CLV MEAN-0.0311

CLV P-VALUEp=0.555

SAMPLE SIZE7,225 bets

FROZEN PARAMETERS (IMMUTABLE DATABASE RECORD)

{
  "rho": -0.05,
  "shrinkage": 0,
  "decay_xi": 0.0019,
  "max_goals": 6
}

Live Predictions Generated by AH-dixoncoles-v1.0.0

Audited out-of-sample predictions registered for this model version.

No predictions currently in ledger for this model variant.