Independent Verification Policy
Effective Date: July 2026 | Version 2.0-Governance
1. The Immutability Principle
Every prediction published by HandicapLab is timestamped and recorded prior to match kickoff. Once written to the Public Ledger, predictions cannot be modified, edited, or deleted under any circumstances. The only allowed append action is post-match outcome settlement.
2. Zero Look-Ahead Bias Guarantee (LeakageGuard)
HandicapLab enforces an invariant data pipeline constraint: no model feature may consume data with a timestamp greater than or equal to the scheduled kickoff time of the predicted match. Any attempt to introduce post-kickoff data during validation or re-training will automatically trigger an internal audit alarm and halt signal generation.
3. Prediction DOI & Cryptographic Signatures
Each published prediction is assigned a permanent identifier termed the Prediction DOI (e.g. HLP-2026-EPL-000421). Each entry contains a deterministic SHA-256 hash generated over the inputs (probability distributions, fair odds, EV calculation, and market parameters) to allow independent third-party cryptographic verification.
4. Pinnacle Closing Line Value (CLV) Benchmarking
Model quality is measured against closing odds provided by Pinnacle. Closing line value (CLV) serves as our primary quantitative benchmark alongside Brier Score and Expected Calibration Error (ECE), ensuring transparent performance tracking against efficient market prices.